7son7
Well-known member
- Liittynyt
- 5.11.2004
- Viestit
- 610
Hiukkaspaastot (aerosols) on mielenkiintoinen Black-Box josta on hyvin paljon teoriatason keskustelua. Talla hetkella hiukkaspaastoteoria on viela silla tasolla ettei varmuudella tiedeta onko sen vaikutus + vai -. Tasta aiheesta on uusi julkaisu Dr. Kiehlin toimesta. Han sanoi seuraavaa loppuyhteenvedossa:
"It could also be argued that these results do not invalidate the application of climate models to projecting future climate for, at least, two reasons. First, within the range of uncertainty in aerosol forcing, models have been benchmarked against the 20th century as a way of establishing a reasonable initial state for future predictions. Second, many of the emission scenarios for the next 50 to 100 years indicate a substantial increase in greenhouse gases with associated large increase in greenhouse forcing. Given that the lifetime of these gases is orders of magnitude larger than that of aerosols, future anthropogenic forcing is dominated by greenhouse gases. Thus, the relative uncertainty in aerosol forcing may be less important for projecting future climate change."
Eli voidaan kiistella siita etta pienhiukkaspaastojen oletettu vaikutus on luultavasti heikompi kuin kasvihuonekaasujen. Painotan kuitenkin etta kaikki pienhiukkastulokset ovat viela mielipidetasolla. No, teorioista ne totuudet syntyy. Tietenkin voidaan spekuloida etta jos tulevaisuuden CO2 paastot eivat enaa merkittavasti vaikuta ilmastoon niin voimistuuko pienhiukkasten vaikutus. Mahdollisesti.
Jeffrey T. Kiehl, 2007. Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L22710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031383, 2007
"It could also be argued that these results do not invalidate the application of climate models to projecting future climate for, at least, two reasons. First, within the range of uncertainty in aerosol forcing, models have been benchmarked against the 20th century as a way of establishing a reasonable initial state for future predictions. Second, many of the emission scenarios for the next 50 to 100 years indicate a substantial increase in greenhouse gases with associated large increase in greenhouse forcing. Given that the lifetime of these gases is orders of magnitude larger than that of aerosols, future anthropogenic forcing is dominated by greenhouse gases. Thus, the relative uncertainty in aerosol forcing may be less important for projecting future climate change."
Eli voidaan kiistella siita etta pienhiukkaspaastojen oletettu vaikutus on luultavasti heikompi kuin kasvihuonekaasujen. Painotan kuitenkin etta kaikki pienhiukkastulokset ovat viela mielipidetasolla. No, teorioista ne totuudet syntyy. Tietenkin voidaan spekuloida etta jos tulevaisuuden CO2 paastot eivat enaa merkittavasti vaikuta ilmastoon niin voimistuuko pienhiukkasten vaikutus. Mahdollisesti.
Jeffrey T. Kiehl, 2007. Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L22710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031383, 2007